Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,818 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Three markets active for us today between MLB futures, our daily MLB play, and our second NBA future of the postseason. Here’s the context.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 9–4, we’re up 4.16 units, we’re up 32% (the average line on our winners has been -110). That 32% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice couple weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
NL East
Atlanta is a wagon, clearly the best team in baseball on paper. They’ve actually been a little underwhelming to start the year—their run differential is only +9—but they should catch up to themselves, and while the Mets are a threat, the Phillies overperformed last year down the stretch and shouldn’t be considered too serious a challenger over a full season of baseball. Nice to have some division favorites in our mix, with a lot of our action centered on longshots so far.
Pick: Atlanta to win -150. Medium confidence.
World Series
Speaking of underwhelming starts: The Cardinals might be the closest to the panic button in the league right now, especially with the Pirates and Cubs looking a little lively and the Brewers continuing to be who they’ve been. That creates value for us, because out of those four teams and the Reds, there’s one team that’s clearly the best on paper. There are 151 games to be played. The Cardinals will be fine.
Pick: St. Louis to win +2500. Medium confidence.
New York (AL) @ Cleveland
This early in the year, we like FanGraphs’s probabilities for determining which games might offer value. Using those and doing a quick scan for small-sample pitching red flags (basically, avoiding betting on a starter having a terrible start to the year or a clearly deceptive ERA/xERA–FIP gap), we can narrow today’s options to the Guardians, Cubs, Nationals, Reds, and Giants. All five are underdogs, though the Guards and the Cubs are right around even odds. We’ll start with those two.
For the Guardians, Peyton Battenfield isn’t regarded as much of a prospect, but the Guardians are one of those franchises you can sometimes trust more than the prospect ranking consensus. Clarke Schmidt, meanwhile, who starts for the Yankees this afternoon, is probably better served as a reliever than a starter, and so far this year, it’s looking like something is straight-up wrong. With Xzavion Curry eating a ton of pitches yesterday and Shane Bieber going seven on Monday, Cleveland’s bullpen is set up well, but so is the Yankees’, which negates that angle. We could take this one, but let’s at least look at the Cubs, and maybe at a few more.
Marcus Stroman is having a great start to the year, but so is Logan Gilbert. The Cubs used a lot of good bullpen pieces yesterday, and Keegan Thompson’s thrown 57 pitches over the last four days, even with a day off after each. The Mariners are fresher in that department. That’s probably enough for us to stay away.
The Nationals are enticing in part because they’re so roundly doubted out of hand. The team is bad, but I don’t know that they’re *this* bad. We like MacKenzie Gore, even if his ERA is deceptive right now, and anytime a guy is returning after 20 months off of baseball, as Griffin Canning is (stress fracture in his back), we don’t love the guy. Davey Martinez has gone to each of Kyle Finnegan and Carl Edwards Jr. three times in the last five days, but neither’s had to throw more than twenty pitches in any of those outings, and the Nats get a travel day tomorrow. The Angels are mostly fresh in the ‘pen, and everyone but Tucker Davidson is probably available. It’s an option.
The Reds have the really long odds here, putting the Yasiel Puig of pitchers out there in Hunter Greene to oppose Spencer Strider, one of the best in the game. They used a lot of bullpen yesterday, but none of their best pieces, whereas Atlanta has four plus-value guys likely unavailable. The Atlanta bullpen can withstand that—it’s the best in the majors—but what we’re looking for is teams that might be a bit worse today than they look on paper, and that’s a cause for concern. Again, it’s an option, but we’ll probably stay away, leaning towards our bias towards higher probability bets.
Clayton Kershaw is a legend for good reason, but he’s been getting away with some hard contact in the early going. San Francisco’s a good place for a guy who’s been giving up home runs, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Alex Cobb, like Gore, has been solid so far but not as good as his ERA indicates. In the bullpen? The Giants did use their three best arms last night, and while they’re all likely available, that doesn’t mean they’ll be at full capacity. The Dodgers are fresher.
Overall, then, we’re between the Guardians and the Nationals. Do we take a full unknown in Battenfield? Do we bet against Griffin Canning’s potential? The FanGraphs eROI is higher with the Guards, and the thing we’re most confident about between all four starting pitchers is that we shouldn’t believe in Clarke Schmidt. Cleveland’s the play.
Pick: Cleveland to win -101. Low confidence.
NBA Playoffs
This is a layup, and hopefully we don’t miss, but we’re taking the Bulls and Thunder to both miss the eventual playoff field. This could happen tonight, it might take until Friday, but the real crux seems to boil down to whether 1) the Timberwolves and Heat are as bad as they looked in their worse half last night and 2) whether the Thunder and Bulls are any better. We’re skeptical of 1, and we’d guess the answer to 2 is no.
Pick: No 10-seed to make playoffs (-350). Low confidence.
