Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,283 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 4–9 so far, down 5.70 units. It’s been a bad start, but we did have a nice mid-April run last year, so we’re hoping to turn it around quickly.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Washington @ San Francisco
We don’t want to be overconfident in Jordan Hicks. It’s only been two starts. But we don’t want to be overconfident against him, either. He doesn’t need to keep dominating for this to be a good-value bet. He only needs to be good.
Pick: San Francisco to win –196. Low confidence. (Corbin and Hicks must start.)
World Series
Doubt the Rays at you own peril.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +3300. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Don’t undervalue the results so far, especially in a division as wide-open as the NL Central.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +5000. Medium confidence.
