Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 164 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Four picks look good again today in the MLB, to varying degrees.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications for making the pick. I’m making the pick because the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Tampa Bay @ Chicago (AL)
The Rays are in first place in the AL East, and while it’s early, they’re far enough ahead and strong enough personnel-wise to be viewed as a legitimate contender. Yes, the Yankees are still the favorite, and the Red Sox should be more than a minor factor, but for the time being, think of the Rays as being in the mix.
The White Sox are not in the mix, but Eloy Jimenez will record an extra-base hit sooner or later.
Yandy Diaz is out of the lineup today for Tampa.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +150. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Houston
Lost in the Yankees’ early struggles is that even with a few poor performances by the bullpen, their pitching staff is already establishing itself as one of the best in baseball, with a 3.31 FIP through eleven games, good for sixth in the MLB.
Of course, the Astros’ staff has been better so far, because the Astros do things like get great contributions from people you’ve forgotten about, such as Collin McHugh, who hasn’t turned in a FIP over 4.00 since 2013, in which he only pitched 26 innings.
He opposes James Paxton tonight in what should be another fun one between the AL’s best two teams on paper.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +105. Low confidence.
Seattle @ Kansas City
If you doubt Seattle can keep winning 85% of its games, Dan Vogelbach and his band of I-thought-this-team-was-supposed-to-be-terrible would like to have a word.
In all seriousness, as the 2018 Mariners demonstrated, things can get bad fast, so the AL West shouldn’t break into a cold sweat just yet. Still, this is fun.
The Royals are not having such fun, but in a statistical quirk, Terrance Gore got a hit in his only plate appearance so far.
Yusei Kikuchi looks to keep pitching pretty well for Seattle. Heath Fillmyer looks to exceed expectations for Kansas City.
Pick: Kansas City to win +138. Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Anaheim
Mike Trout strained his groin last night, but figures to be only out a few days. This is a relief for the Brewers, because the Orange County Mike Trout’s are very dependent upon Mike Trout.
Peter Bourjos started in Center Field in the one game in which Trout DH’d so far, which makes things even more demoralizing, because Bourjos is a far cry from the 4.3 WAR player he was back in 2011, before stints in St. Louis and Philadelphia and Tampa and Atlanta. The Angels would probably be better served by moving Brian Goodwin over to Center and putting slightly-less-middling-than-Peter-Bourjos utility man David Fletcher in Left. Either way, the Angels’ win probability is somewhere around 5% lower without Trout in the lineup, which is amazing when considering that even enormous favorites in MLB games are only 70%-ish likely to win. Mike Trout shifts the Angels an eighth of the way across the spectrum.
Brandon Woodruff, starting for the Brewers, has been the victim of some bad luck his last two starts, allowing a .440 BABIP, which actually makes his 6.00 ERA fairly impressive.
Pick: Anaheim to win +135. Low confidence.
