Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 873 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Georgia @ South Carolina
When South Carolina and Georgia last met, it was a bad night for the Bulldogs. Despite attempting 26 free throws (and making 20 of them), Georgia managed only 0.80 points per possession, crippled by 19 turnovers and 21 missed threes.
Expect something similar tonight.
South Carolina’s defense has been, not adjusting for schedule, the best in the SEC in conference play (I’d guess it’s also the best when adjusting for schedule—I just haven’t checked). It forces turnovers. It forces bad shots. It plays rough, physical basketball, and while it’s yielded one of the highest full-season rates of free throws in the country, free throws which have been made at an above-average 72.5% clip, it’s still in the top quartile in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s no 2017 Gamecocks defense, capable of carrying the team to a Final Four, but it’s a very good defense.
Georgia’s offense is ok. Anthony Edwards scores a lot of points, but he’s forced to take a ton of shots, and Sahvir Wheeler’s turnover issues (Wheeler’s not alone in these issues, but his are the most notable) prevent a significant number of possessions from even ending in shots. It’s a fine offense, but it should struggle again tonight against a tough defense, and while the Gamecocks might have a comfortable night at the other end of the floor, their tendency to extend possessions through offensive rebounds makes it unlikely we’ll see 74 possessions again, as we did in the last meeting.
Pick: Under 150 (-110). Low confidence.
