We split again on college hoops last night, with Saint Mary’s preserving the under but coughing up an eleven-point lead in the process. That leaves us still treading water heading into a big weekend. Without further ado…three college basketball plays and the third part of our Super Bowl pick.
Super Bowl
We placed a comparable bet to this one here and here, publishing in stages in order to 1) draw this thing out and 2) give ourselves a shot at benefiting if the line did change. It didn’t, and we continue to see this play the way we’ve seen it all along: The Eagles were the better team this season. We’d rather roll with that than assume the Chiefs will play beyond their season-to-date selves, even though we fully acknowledge the possibility they will.
Pick: Philadelphia +1 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
VCU @ Dayton
We like Dayton here, but what we really like is the over. We pair overs with underdogs (there is a reason behind this, as we’ve said, but it’s dumb, as we’ve also said), so the Dayton play springs from the over.
Why do we like the over so much? VCU’s averaging 79.9 points per game in A-10 play. Dayton is, per kenpom, worse than the conference’s median when it comes to defensive efficiency. This game should be slow, but not excruciatingly slow. We think it turns more into Dayton successfully keeping up with VCU than either team shutting the other down.
Pick: Over 138.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Dayton +1.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Miami @ Louisville
Miami’s beaten us the last two Saturdays, but we’re not quitting the approach yet, especially when we finally get to bet on a competent team.
Pick: Louisville –18.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 154 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Rutgers @ Maryland
Rutgers is coming off a breakthrough win. Maryland is coming off a maddening loss.
Pick: Maryland –10.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 151 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –97.03 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 61 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
