Another split last night, but another profitable split. We’ll take it.
Double NFL futures today, single CFB futures, and tonight’s ball. Let’s get to it.
CSUN at Northern Iowa
Cal State–Northridge managed to hold onto Andy Newman on a busy coaching carousel. UNI’s easy to overestimate because of their history. It’s early in the season, so moneylines shouldn’t be this confident. We’re betting on uncertainty.
Pick: CSUN to win +383. 2.19 units to win 8.39.
College Football Playoff
Our futures portfolio had a decent amount down on Miami to make the playoff, but we’re still in an ok spot. As long as Indiana, Mississippi, Oregon, and Notre Dame all make it, we’re set to profit on that set of bets, and that’s even if all of BYU, Utah, Memphis, Louisville, Virginia, Duke, and Missouri don’t make it, which is highly unlikely. So, three more units on playoff contenders:
- The committee said Memphis is ahead of USF, UNT, and JMU right now. If Memphis wins out, they’re in, and they might even be able to lose one more time depending how the AAC’s tiebreakers break.
- Utah’s a weird case, but the committee showed they respect the Utes’ two-loss résumé. These guys still have to go to Waco and Lawrence, and K-State’s dangerous, but they’re set to be an accomplished 10–2 team. Enough other teams should lose to leave them on the right side of the bubble if they take care of business. Also, they’re not entirely out of the Big 12 race.
- On the ACC side, SMU’s price is too long. They can be had at 11-to-1 to win the ACC. Yes, they have two nonconference losses, but those are both to Big 12 teams, and two of their three losses came by a field goal or less. (Margin matters. Ask Notre Dame.) A 10–3 SMU is probably going to be ranked ahead of a 12–1 James Madison. It’s not very likely, but it’s possible enough to make this a good price.
Pick: Memphis to make playoff +350. 1.00 unit to win 3.50.
Pick: Utah to make playoff +360. 1.00 unit to win 3.60.
Pick: SMU to make playoff +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
Heisman Trophy
On the Heisman side, it’s cornering season. We’ve got one unit down on Julian Sayin at 16-to-1 plus four dead units. There’s a good chance both Alabama and Texas A&M both lose again. Even if they don’t, it seems like right now the Big Ten quarterbacks are in the drivers seats? And whoever wins the Big Ten Championship might win the Heisman? That’s likely enough for us to get Mendoza to profitable status. Sayin’s +8 for us. Mendoza’s +4. Ty Simpson and the field are all –9. We’ll keep monitoring.
Pick: Fernando Mendoza to win +225. 4.00 units to win 9.00.
UTSA at USF
Movelor’s almost exactly in line with both spreads tonight, but I’m not sure UTSA’s success from last week is sustainable. Also, USF’s had the killer instinct this year. When they’ve had the chance, they’ve twisted the knife.
Pick: USF –13.5 (–120). 4.12 units to win 3.43.
AFC East
For NFL futures, we start in the AFC East. We’ve got the Patriots at 14-to-1. They or the Bills are winning this division. FPI says there’s positive value on Buffalo. We’ll lock in at least a little profit on that front, covering likely division longshot losses elsewhere.
Pick: Buffalo to win –140. 6.00 units to win 4.29.
NFC North
In the NFC North, we have a medium amount on the Lions and nothing on the Packers. This is a good price. That race is closer to two teams than Bears or Vikings backers want to believe.
Pick: Green Bay to win +110. 7.00 units to win 7.70.
AFC West
And in the AFC West, we don’t love this play but the numbers are right. The Chiefs still have work to do. The post-Alt Chargers should see their probabilities split more evenly across Kansas City and Denver.
Pick: Denver to win +140. 3.00 units to win 4.20.
NFC West
More on the Niners in a moment.
Pick: San Francisco to win +340. 2.00 units to win 6.80.
NFC
On the postseason side, the likelihood Brock Purdy comes back is high enough to justify continued Niners betting. Meanwhile, that Bucs loss to the Lions doesn’t mean we can’t amass a lot of leverage on them. They’ll be in the playoffs. They might be the 1-seed if there’s enough cannibalization in other divisions. It’s nice to be in the NFC South.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1300. 1.00 unit to win 13.00.
Super Bowl
More on these two here.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2800. 2.00 units to win 56.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2700. 1.00 unit to win 27.00.
Las Vegas at Denver
The Broncos haven’t always put teams away or played a full four quarters. But in the NFL, that points more towards pending upside than a clinical flaw.
Pick: Denver –8.5 (–115). 1.97 units to win 1.71.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –467.50 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 880 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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