As you may have guessed, no MLB bets again today. We’re now planning to start those on Monday, but plans are always subject to change. Instead, we’ve got NCAA Tournament “futures” and a pick for tonight.
NCAA Tournament
Some of these you have to hunt for, but the lines are out there, especially if you check futures markets and not just moneylines. The value looks good on each of them, at least to us, and they combine to leave us in a place where if Duke and Nebraska both win this round, we’ll be set to roughly break even on CBB futures portfolio bets placed so far, with plenty of upside elsewhere. Speaking of which: Hook ‘Em.
Pick: Duke to make Elite Eight –270. 25.00 units to win 9.26.
Pick: Michigan State to make Elite Eight +115. 10.00 units to win 11.50.
Pick: Alabama to make Elite Eight +450. 5.00 units to win 22.50.
Illinois vs. Houston
We still like how much the Big Ten’s been overperforming kenpom’s expectations, and while we don’t trust Illinois…do we really trust Houston? We want this for Kelvin Sampson, sure. But the track record isn’t quite there.
Pick: Illinois +2.5 (–110). 3.71 units to win 3.37.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –558.44 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,109 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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