Heck of a comeback by UNC Wilmington and Delaware to at least push last night’s over. Hope everyone else got it at 148 too.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas
This is setting up well for Texas. They’re a more talented team than Vanderbilt. They’re almost a perfect equivalent to Vanderbilt in kenpom. Vanderbilt’s hometown advantage is real but shouldn’t be this big. Texas is the numbers move here.
What we really like about the Longhorns, though, goes beyond the numbers. Texas has made a habit this year of doing the opposite of what’s expected. When things are going well, they lose. When things are going poorly, they win. We aren’t suggesting a causation here. We just think they’re more consistent than they appear. The market likes to follow recent Longhorn results. We’ll try doing the opposite.
Pick: Texas +3 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Seton Hall vs. Villanova
At Madison Square Garden, we’re drawn to another Seton Hall over. This game is going to be slow, but even at a projected 61 possessions, kenpom has this reaching 131. Seton Hall is bad, but Villanova isn’t much defensively, and the Wildcats can pour the ball into the hoop. Give us the points at MSG in primetime.
Pick: Over 126 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –93.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 133 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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