Good baseball last night. Good starts to the football, but bad finishes. Big day ahead. Small units, though. (We have almost all our cash flow tied up in MLB futures. Which is good. We’re good at those and bad at these.)
Northwestern at Tulane
We like moderate moneyline underdogs and we like unders. Theory on the moneylines is that anything within a touchdown is pretty close to a tossup in Week 1, when markets are their least efficient. Uncertainty is high.
Pick: Northwestern to win +170. 0.07 units to win 0.12.
Coastal Carolina at Virginia
Theory behind unders is that it takes longer for offenses to click than defenses. We stole this from a friend. Blame him, credit us, you know the drill.
Pick: Under 57 (–110). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
Sacramento State at South Dakota State
You get to see Jaden Rashada in this one, plus a completely rebuilt South Dakota State. (They’ll still probably be pretty good.)
Pick: Under 56.5 (–110). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
LSU at Clemson
I know, it’s Brian Kelly in a big game. But Week 1 is weird. There’s also a little implicit hedge here. LSU’s path to winning is Garrett Nussmeier throwing four touchdowns, right?
Pick: LSU to win +165. 0.07 units to win 0.12.
Pick: Under 56.5 (–110). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
Utah at UCLA
The post-Cam Rising era begins.
Pick: UCLA to win +177. 0.07 units to win 0.12.
Miami at New York (NL)
Heat Index’s first choice is still the Mets.
Pick: New York to win –161. 0.39 units to win 0.24. Cabrera and Peterson must start.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Heat Index’s second choice is no longer the Phillies, but we like this spot for them. Yes, Chris Sale is a dawg, but Christopher Sánchez has been on par with him this year and the Braves are what they have become.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –138. 0.46 units to win 0.33. Sale and Sánchez must start.
New York (AL) at Chicago (AL)
Heat Index’s second choice is now the Yankees.
Pick: New York to win –208. 0.51 units to win 0.25. Schlittler and Smith must start.
San Diego at Minnesota
His last time out, we said Taj Bradley isn’t bad, right? That bet went poorly. The report on his start today included that Mick Abel is available out of the bullpen. You never want them designating a bulk reliever before you take the mound.
Pick: San Diego to win –147. 0.49 units to win 0.33. Pivetta and Bradley must start.
Seattle at Cleveland
Logan Gilbert has kept things steady for Seattle. They need that right now. I had a dream last night that Cal Raleigh was out for the season.
Pick: Seattle to win –133. 0.45 units to win 0.34. Gilbert and Williams must start.
Detroit at Kansas City
We’ve been Jack Flaherty skeptics a bunch this year, but this is overkill. The Tigers aren’t cold anymore. The Royals aren’t that hot. Detroit won the series opener.
Pick: Detroit to win –116. 0.39 units to win 0.34. Flaherty and Kolek must start.
Baltimore at San Francisco
Trevor Rogers keeps being that dude.
Pick: Baltimore to win –113. 0.38 units to win 0.34. Rogers and Seymour must start.
Chicago (NL) at Colorado
We only really do overs and unders with the Cubs, but we’re doing one here. Javier Assad is pretty consistently overestimated by the narrative and seemingly his own franchise. Meanwhile, the Cubs offense is showing signs of waking up.
Pick: Over 11 (–110). 0.27 units to win 0.25. Assad and Brown must start.
Texas at Sacramento
This way, we can say we picked Texas to win today. (Merrill Kelly’s been solid and Mason Barnett has a 5.53 FIP at AAA.)
Pick: Texas to win –126. 0.42 to win 0.33. Kelly and Barnett must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.12 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 659 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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