Today’s Best Bets: Underdogs and Shockers

No futures today. We’ll have to catch back up on the NFL and college football (and yes, NBA and NHL catchups are still coming).


NY Jets at New England

We believe in the Pats, but it’s a Thursday night and the Jets aren’t horrible right now.

Pick: NY Jets +13 (–115). 2.67 units to win 2.32.


Troy at Old Dominion

Troy isn’t this bad. They also have more to play for than ODU.

Pick: Troy +9.5 (–110). 7.98 units to win 7.25.


Loyola at Wichita State

We do think Loyola’s capable of pulling it together, but a road game in Wichita is tough even when you’re playing well. Also, Paul Mills is showing signs of getting the Shockers back to relevance.

Pick: Wichita State –4.5 (­–110). 2.55 units to win 2.32.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –493.98 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 895 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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