We were close to a profitable day yesterday, but overtime bit our under. That happens. We’re at least up to 1–2 on the MLB season, within shouting range of even on that front. And we’ve got some fun basketball ahead.
Today’s MLB futures, today’s college basketball future, and four more Sweet 16 picks…
NL Central
Like the Blue Jays yesterday, this is one where perceptions of offseason failure are showing up too strongly in the markets. To be fair, there’s a chance that the Cardinals are less likely to buy at the deadline than other teams, contention status being equal. But that’s marginal. We like the value.
Pick: St. Louis to win +750. 2.00 units to win 15.00.
World Series
I’m not sure what’s got the Twins so undervalued. Maybe fear of the Guardians? That’s fair—we go off of FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds to make these, and the Guards are one of the franchises we really believe are smarter than FanGraphs’s models—but this is still too long a price.
Pick: Minnesota to win +3500. 2.00 units to win 70.00.
Pittsburgh at Miami
The Pirates burned a lot of bullpen last night just to lose. Connor Gillispie doesn’t need to be anything special for this to present good value.
Pick: Miami to win +127. 15.00 units to win 19.05. (Keller and Gillispie must start.)
Michigan State vs. Mississippi
Pivoting to basketball…
We’re nervous here, because we think kenpom might be underrating the Big Ten as a whole, but evidence that it’s overrating the SEC has subsided (more on that in a separate post later), and we’ll be picking some Big Ten teams in the late games. That makes this a little bit of a hedge against an overrated Big Ten. Really, though, it’s what our approach has had us doing all March: Trust kenpom and Nate Silver.
Pick: Mississippi +3.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Kenpom and Silver are split on this one, but we like the over. We don’t love overs across the board, even after last night’s outburst. We are, though, averaging totals about a point higher than the kenpom number across the NCAA Tournament so far. Kenpom points towards the over here already. If there is more offense than kenpom expects, it’ll only help us.
Pick: Over 145 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Auburn vs. Michigan
We’re trusting Pomeroy and Silver. To add a little analysis: It’s easy to underrate Michigan. They’re not particularly noticeable within this Sweet 16. Good team, though.
Pick: Michigan +9 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Houston vs. Purdue
We’re trusting Pomeroy and Silver. I would think Braden Smith should handle Houston’s pressure pretty well, and maybe be a sympathetic body for foul calls? We’ll find out.
Pick: Purdue +8.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
NCAA Tournament
Our probabilities only show value on a couple teams today, but they do show value on Tennessee, on whom we’ve already got one unit. We’ll add another. It’s just a unit, and if anything, we believe in Tennessee more now that we’ve seen the SEC perform well lately.
Pick: Tennessee to win +2000. 1.00 unit to win 20.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –268.28 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 235 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
