Not a lot working this week. In fact, nothing working since Saturday, I don’t think.
UConn at St. John’s
This isn’t behaving like a normal line, where we’d expect St. John’s to be a slight favorite based on how close it is to 50/50 on kenpom. There are three potential causes I can see:
The first is that this is about perceptions of home-court advantage (or the lack thereof) against UConn at MSG.
The second is that this is about this being a heavily public bet game, with the public higher on UConn than St. John’s. (I’m theorizing—I don’t have data on that here.)
The third is that this is about data on home-court advantage (or the lack thereof) against UConn at MSG.
We lean towards that third explanation being the truest. And with UConn so fierce defensively and St. John’s not a terrific shooting team, we like the matchup too.
Pick: UConn –1 (–105). 3.14 units to win 2.99.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –617.05 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,060 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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