One change today: We’re no longer multiplying Sunday and Tuesday units. We’re still doing winners on Tuesdays and losers on Sundays (for our spot-based approach), but we’re no longer as confident in that rule, which we’ve seen break down in the past over the stretch run.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
This pick is spot-based, and the spot is this: Mike Burrows is suspect but has mostly done a good job. Zack Littell’s played with fire all season and gotten away with it. The Reds have had all kinds of trouble scoring this series, and them as a playoff contender was always a bit of an odd concept. We like the Pirates to get the series win.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –106. 1.04 units to win 0.98. Littell and Burrows must start.
Sacramento at Baltimore
Heat Index’s first choice is not the Brewers or Giants, but the A’s, who’ve both hit and pitched well since the break. Luis Morales hasn’t been part of that pitching, but we don’t ask Heat Index too many questions.
Pick: Sacramento to win +106. 0.58 units to win 0.61. Morales and Povich must start.
Washington at San Francisco
Heat Index’s second choice is the Nationals to lose. The relevant thing here is that it’s not the Brewers, who’ve been getting some ERA/FIP luck. MacKenzie Gore could use some of that.
Pick: San Francisco to win –152. 0.93 units to win 0.61. Gore and Verlander must start.
Toronto at Los Angeles
Going back to spot-based, we like the Blue Jays. In addition to his injury liability, Tyler Glasnow’s been messier lately, walking batters and allowing dingers. He isn’t bad, but his season’s at the point where his FIP and xERA are both worse than his projected FIP on FanGraphs’s Depth Charts, which is always a concern. This sucks for the guy, but I do wonder if his development’s been curtailed by a lack of consistent game experience. The raw tools should start to wane around this age. Did he ever learn how to pitch while he was trying to learn to keep his body intact?
We trust Eric Lauer to compete, and we don’t think the Blue Jays are dead yet. Should the Dodgers be favored? Yes. But not by this much.
Pick: Toronto to win +155. 0.63 units to win 0.98. Lauer and Glasnow must start.
Chicago (NL) at St. Louis
In Missouri, we’re not sure the Cubs should be favored. A long-awaited offensive recovery last night now has to compete with Sonny Gray. That’s not a great recipe.
Pick: St. Louis to win +104. 0.95 units to win 0.99. Imanaga and Gray must start.
Go Bowling at the Glen (NASCAR Cup Series)
It was a bit of a shocker when Ryan Blaney won the pole at Watkins Glen, and that’s all the more reason to think he’ll be competitive today. He’s never been a road course ace, but earlier in his career he had a good run of finishes in this race. That should still be in there somewhere.
Pick: Ryan Blaney to finish top five +275. 0.22 units to win 0.61.
Grand Prix of Portland (IndyCar)
A Chevrolet engine won this last year, Alex Palou’s been great but less great over the recent stretch, and Pato O’Ward’s more than capable of winning. He’s getting longer odds than we expect from polesitters. We’re going to roll with it.
Pick: Pato O’Ward to win +300. 0.20 units to win 0.60.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.74 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 571 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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