The Rockies came through yesterday, giving us a much-needed 2–0 weekend on the diamond. For better or worse, our method has us back on a big underdog tonight.
Houston vs. Florida
We also have some outstanding futures on the Coogs, but those are small. I think it’s 3 units to win 13.75 units. (Our tracking is terrible right now, but now that college basketball’s over we should have the audit done soon and that section at the bottom linked to a full accounting of our year so far.)
Houston should be the better team. That Florida staff is great at what they do, and Walter Clayton Jr.’s a special player, but Houston should be the better team.
Pick: Houston +1 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Los Angeles at Washington
We have to deal with two red flags here. Both are small, but if there were more options today, we’d stay away.
First, Dustin May pitched very well in his first start. It’s only a one-start sample, but the possibility’s there that he’s better than the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections which form the basis of our approach. This is a heightened possibility since he’s returning from such a long layoff, but again, only a one-start sample, and the uncertainty cuts both ways. Also, the same possibility is there for MacKenzie Gore, who’s performed better than those projections in two consecutive starts. (We judge this by comparing real xERA and FIP to projected FIP. If projected FIP is between real xERA and real FIP, we say a pitcher’s in line with their projections.)
Second, it’s rainy today in D.C. This should move through by gametime, but if it lingers, we could be looking at a delay. It’s hard to know who that would help.
We’re rolling with the Nats anyway. But those are our concerns.
Pick: Washington to win +175. 15.00 units to win 26.25. May and Gore must start.
World Series
There’s new value in a postseason market coming off the Red Sox’ great weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this shortened as the day goes on.
Pick: Boston to win +2200. 2.00 units to win 44.00.
NL Central
Here, too, there’s new value. Not because the Cubs had a great weekend (though they did win a series over the previously undefeated Padres), but because of the Cardinals getting swept. Again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some market adjustments after dawn.
Pick: Chicago to win +120. 2.00 units to win 2.40.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –112.47 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 253 single-game markets plus one almost-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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