Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,521 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Washington @ Atlanta
Were Washington in the hunt, Paolo Espino would be one of baseball’s better stories this year. As it is, he’s arguably its best untold story. 34 years old, Espino has played for five different organizations. He broke into the league in 2017, but made just twelve appearances, posted a 6.00 ERA, and didn’t reemerge until last year, when he threw six major league innings. This year? He’s up to 86 innings, and he’s quietly been one of the Nats’ best pitchers, with a 4.08 ERA backed by a 4.71 xERA and a 4.40 FIP.
For our purposes, those numbers are close enough to Espino’s projections to justify betting against him tonight. But if it goes badly for us, well, at least the story gets that much better.
Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ San Diego
Blake Snell’s xERA is 5.11. This is an unavoidable fact. The man’s thrown 121 innings this year, and in many of them, there’s been significant, consistent, hard contact. At the same time, though, he’s got a 3.99 FIP, and with those two numbers comparably predictive of future performance, one does wonder if Snell’s had some bad luck, especially after he managed just a 2.62 FIP over the month of August, striking out 54 in 36.2 innings while walking just twelve.
Snell might not be “back.” But he also might not have really left.
Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-175). Low confidence.
