Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread.
Just MLB futures today, and no hedges, as we let the AL East run and see what the evening brings. For unit context: We began the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio (20 per week, 4 per weekday), plus an extra 520 in reserve for hedges.
ALCS
There’s still value on the Blue Jays, in all markets, but the best value is here, and with them having slid down our scenarios grid since our All-Star Break binge, with the Mariners and Rays so valuable for so long between then and now, we’ll stock back up. There’s still about a 15% chance one of the Rays and Jays gets a first-round playoff bye.
Pick: Toronto to win +800. Medium confidence.
World Series
And, in a repeat of yesterday, we’re in on the Padres, who with this become our preferred World Series champion. Lots of value on both San Diego and Atlanta in that market, which makes their likely first-round matchup feel just fine.
Pick: San Diego to win +2800. Medium confidence.
