Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,116 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, two MLB futures. College football and NFL futures will be here at some point in the next two days. Here’s the context on each of today’s markets.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 89–62–4, we’re up 18.79 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –110). We’re looking for win number 90.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 79.58 units, or 10.6%.
Los Angeles @ Miami
The Dodgers are tossing out a bit of a secondary lineup tonight, with Amed Rosario batting cleanup and Max Muncy resting his shoulder. Clayton Kershaw’s having a great year, but he’s allowed a home run in each of his last four starts, and that’s cause for concern as well. We don’t love this, but we do like the value on it, and we’ve built ourselves some units to work with, so we’re going to use one here.
Pick: Miami to win +121. Low confidence. (Kershaw and Luzardo must start.)
ALCS
There’s value on Houston again in the AL pennant market after yesterday’s games, and we’ll take that value. This makes the Astros a profitable scenario for us, though only by a handful of units.
The most value today in any futures market can be found on the Twins, who are looking at home field advantage in the Wild Card Series, most likely against the Blue Jays or Rangers, and then an ALDS matchup which could come against the Mariners. That’s not a terrible path, and as always, the franchise’s playoff losing streak is probably helping create some of this opportunity on our side.
Pick: Houston to win +325. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1400. Medium confidence.
