Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,558 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Boston @ Baltimore
How much win probability does treating a game like a must-win while your opponent does not treat the game like a must-win add? I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s nothing, and with Chris Sale on the mound with a fresh bullpen behind him, I’d be surprised if Alex Cora does anything but go all-in tonight with an opportunity to either tie the Yankees or pull to two games ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card race.
Pick: Boston to win -260. Medium confidence.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Zack Wheeler: 2.79 ERA; 2.80 xERA; 2.69 FIP
Charlie Morton: 3.53 ERA; 3.39 xERA; 3.28 FIP
Clearly, Wheeler’s better, but Morton’s quietly been the 16th-most valuable pitcher in baseball by fWAR this year. This is an ace-on-ace game, and one where the rest of the roster favors the home team.
Pick: Atlanta to win -125. Low confidence.
