Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,458 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% across 807 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context on these: We started the season with 520 units in the portfolio for weekday futures picks (4 units a day, 5 days a week) and an additional 520 in reserve for hedges.
World Series
Even with Atlanta winning last night, the Mets have a big leg up in the NL East chase, and we wouldn’t mind stretching our upside on them. Going by FanGraphs’s Depth Charts projection system, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer shake out as the two best starting pitchers in the postseason, and Edwin Díaz is expected to be the best reliever. That’s a good position.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +525. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +525. Medium confidence.
