Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,860 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1.6% across 2,358 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB, single-game NFL, and MLB futures. Here’s the context on each market:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 169–148–4 so far this year, down 11.16 units. It’s been a bad showing.
MLB futures: In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season. Now that division futures have begun paying out, we’re doing it on weekends as well.
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
We’re still on the “bet against the perceived hottest team” strategy. So far, it’s 2–4, down 1.37 units. Again: This is a last-ditch test at the end of a bad year.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +162. Low confidence. (Pepiot and Skubal must start.)
World Series
The value we’re seeing on the Mariners here exists within the margin for error. It’s showing a +1% eROI. But, the Mariners aren’t entirely out of it, and they would be a bad team for us to have in it. This is cheap, kind of like the Tigers were cheap when we got them at 250-to-1 to win the pennant two and a half weeks ago.
The Braves’ value is bigger. That’s doing more for us here. We’d still prefer them to miss the playoffs—we have more upside on the Mets and Diamondbacks—but this does close the gap a little bit.
Pick: Atlanta to win +3300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Seattle to win +12500. Medium confidence.
