Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 550 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
When Sonny Gray was dealt to Cincinnati prior to this season, he was billed as a reclamation project after managing only a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP over a year and a half with the Yankees.
Consider him reclaimed.
Under first-year Reds’ pitching coach Derek Johnson, with whom Gray worked back at Vanderbilt, Gray has posted a 2.80 ERA and 3.39 FIP over 30 starts. His innings are still being watched closely—he’s averaged fewer than six a start—but he’s still among the MLB’s top 45 in innings pitched.
Pick: Cincinnati to win (-110). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
If you’re looking for a sleeper pick for the 2020 Cy Young, try Mike Clevinger. The Cleveland righty, who missed a portion of the year due to injury, has a 2.47 FIP, 2.54 ERA, and 34.7% K-rate over just more than 110 innings. All those are in the top five among pitchers with 110 innings or more, and they’re coming on the back of a 3.11 ERA (3.85 FIP) in 2017 and a 3.02 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 2018. If Cleveland makes the playoffs, he might break out onto the national consciousness in October, but if they come up short, he could continue to float under the radar, potentially giving you favorable odds on him.
Pick: Under 9 (+100). Medium confidence.
