Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,044 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Game 1: Philadelphia @ Washington
J.T. Realmuto is allegedly returning to the Phillies’ lineup today in the first game, and that’s important. While Andrew Knapp (.400 wOBA, 29 PA’s) and Rafael Marchan (.592 wOBA, 9 PA’s) have hit well in his absence, they’ve done so over a so-tiny-as-to-be-meaningless sample. Realmuto is a key cog for Philadelphia. We’ll see how it goes for his hip.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
With Sonny Gray returning from the injured list, there’s the possibility he might have a shorter leash than usual. If he doesn’t, that’s ok for this pick, but if he does, it turns into something great, because the Reds’ bullpen is not as good as Sonny Gray.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Kansas City
The Cardinals got Giovanny Gallegos back from the injured list last night, and things did not go well. 21 pitches, two outs, one important run. The guess is that he’s unavailable tonight, or at least less likely to be available, and with him being one of the two best bullpen arms the Cards have, that drives up the expected total in what should be a bullpen game from St. Louis.
Pick: Over 9 (+100). Low confidence.
Houston @ Seattle
If the Astros are going to do anything in the playoffs, they’ll need Framber Valdez to pitch like he did Thursday. After two straight rough outings—five earned runs over five innings in L.A. following eight earned over seven innings in Anaheim—he struck out eleven Rangers, walked one, and allowed just one to score.
Valdez has been a key part of keeping the Astros in playoff position. His 3.82 ERA is great, and his 3.01 FIP indicates he’s maybe been even better than results have shown. In what should be his final regular season start, Houston would like him to show up in “playoff” form. It’s more likely than not that he will.
Pick: Houston to win -180. Low confidence.
