Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,004 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
We’ve got a few post-Trade Deadline futures today, and the odds for those will come from Bovada, as usual with futures. Before those, though…
New York (NL) @ Baltimore
The Mets have suffered a few meltdowns over the past few days, but even with that, the roster’s a strong one. If you do subscribe to the theory that the Mets are psychologically tainted right now, that should theoretically hurt them more in close games, a risk that can be partially mitigated by taking the run line rather than the moneyline. It isn’t a slam dunk, but it’s the best we can offer on today’s board.
Pick: New York (NL) -1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
Futures
First off, the White Sox are the new AL Central favorites, and will likely cross the 50% likelihood threshold should they win tonight. Get them while you can.
Secondly, the Padres are the second-best team in baseball, according to FanGraphs’s Projected Standings. As they’ve been all year, the odds are too long. Keep on pounding it—there should be opportunities to hedge later if necessary.
Thirdly, the Phillies have quietly turned themselves into a semi-contender. Zach Eflin might be the key here. Right now he’s their third-best starter, and if his results start trending towards his 2.72 FIP, the Philadelphia postseason rotation will suddenly look rather formidable.
Finally, the Mets again. There’s a lot of time, and the Mets have a lot of pieces. They’re a mess on the field, yes. They’re a mess off the field, too. But on paper, they’re great, and sometimes it’s worth it to take a flier on paper.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win AL Central +175. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win World Series +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win World Series +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win World Series +5000. Low confidence.
