Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,024 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
We’ve got another future today, and as always with those, the odds come from Bovada because an up-to-date Vegas Consensus is hard to find. First, though…
New York (NL) @ Philadelphia
The Mets and Phillies have each had some meltdowns—the Mets’ bullpen has a WPA (Win Probability Added) of -2.02, which translates to two extra losses compared to average performance. The Phillies’ bullpen has a WPA of -4.98, or five extra losses.
There’s a big difference between those two numbers.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -130. Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Chicago (NL)
The wind’s blowing out tonight at Wrigley, and while we don’t suggest you take the over (our numbers have this as a 9.0-run game without accounting for wind, which isn’t within the confidence window for Over 8 at -120), it does put the run line favorite in a stronger position than normal when two great pitchers are facing one another.
Pick: Chicago (NL) -1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Seattle
The Giants have the sixth-best offense in baseball by wRC+. Last year, they were 28th. In 2018, they were last. In 2017, they were 29th. Mike Yastrzemski (154 wRC+) is amazing. Brandon Belt (165) is having a career year. Donovan Solano (147) has broken through. And those are only three of the seven hitters the Giants have above 125, a mark only fifty qualified batters are exceeding right now.
Things have changed in San Francisco.
Pick: San Francisco to win -130. Low confidence.
Future
The Twins’ offense has only cobbled together the 16th-best wRC+ in baseball, right around the median. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs expects that to change, pegging them as the third-best offense overall given their current roster construction. With a rotation that ranks fourth in FIP and a bullpen that ranks eighth, Minnesota has a well-rounded team that’s worth piling on at this point in the AL Pennant race, even if they do currently project to play the Yankees in the Wild Card Series.
Pick: Minnesota to win ALCS +600. Low confidence.
