Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,407 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is often used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures fund (20 units per week, 4 units per weekday) and an additional 520 in reserve for potential hedging.
World Series
A slight pivot here, as we’re seeing more value on the Phillies in this market than the Padres in the NLCS market (we’re already deep enough on the Padres in the World Series market that breadth is better for us than that specific depth). One nice thing going on for the Blue Jays is that they still have a narrow angle at securing the 2-seed in the American League, sitting five and a half games back after yesterday’s win over Tampa Bay. One nice thing going on for the Phillies is that they’re fairly comfortably in the playoffs, with a probability over 90% on FanGraphs this morning of making the field.
Pick: Toronto to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +3300. Medium confidence.
