Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,758 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: MLB futures; MLB moneylines.
Here’s the history on each and how we approach them:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 164–140–4 so far this year, down 8.31 units. About a month ago, we pivoted to a different set of systems. We’re 52–38–1 since the pivot, up 4.49 units. The biggest driver of that success has been Heat Index, our pet metric which gauges the gap between how hot different teams are. Together, various combinations of Heat Index’s first, second, and third picks have gone 37–14–1, generating a 7.67-unit return. We’re only using Heat Index’s first choice today, and we’re shortening the sample from three weeks to two weeks in response to a recent plateau. We’ll keep monitoring its performance.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime later this month when the scenarios become more specific.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
After a couple weeks of better (relative) performance, the White Sox are back to being the coldest team in baseball, losing 15 of their last 17. The Guardians, meanwhile, have rallied yet again. Every time the Royals and/or the Twins get close, Cleveland resumes winning.
Heat Index likes this the most. The payout isn’t great, but we’re just looking for wins, and we still think we might have some value with this metric.
Pick: Cleveland to win –227. Low confidence. (Lively and Cannon must start.)
NLCS
We liked this price for the Padres yesterday. Then, the Braves lost last night as a favorite while other Wild Card contenders were either idle or won as favorites (the Mets). It’s still good value today.
Pick: San Diego to win +750. Medium confidence.
World Series
Similarly, the value improved on the Yankees, and we’re even getting a better price. The Yankees beat the Royals, the Orioles lost to the Red Sox, and AL East markets shifted while the World Series one didn’t, despite New York’s bye probability, per FanGraphs, increasing by roughly ten percentage points.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +610. Medium confidence.
