Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,597 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
New York (AL) @ Boston
Let’s say this goes mediumly well for the Yankees. Let’s say they get seven innings out of Cole, an inning out of Loáisiga, and an inning out of Chapman. Let’s say all three pitch like the as-good-as-they-are-projected-by-FanGraphs versions of themselves.
That FIP, weighted by the innings breakdown, is 3.19, and considering the Red Sox offense is, even without J.D. Martinez, roughly ten percent better than the league average, we’re up to 3.55 projected runs, and that’s before factoring in the Fenway Park park factor, which Statcast has at 107, mostly due to the outlandish number of doubles hit there (there’s a 38% doubles boost in Boston), something that’s tied to weather, sure, but shouldn’t be too impacted by the leisurely breeze blowing in and across from left to right tonight, presumably blocked in part by the Green Monster. If we add in the park factor, we’re up to 3.80 projected runs.
This isn’t very many runs.
But if we repeat the exercise with the Red Sox on the bump, saying we get six innings from Eovaldi’s 3.65 FIP projection and three from the 4.04-FIP quality bullpen, with the Yankees offense roughly eleven percent better than the league average and all the same park factor jazz, we get 4.49 projected runs, for a total of 8.29. Add in that eight’s an even number, meaning a potential 4-4 tie will require resolution, and this seems like the best play available in this game. The Yankees are justified favorites, but the odds have climbed too high. It’s hard to say whether there’s a low-score/high-score correlation with the winner (something we’re looking at for tomorrow, where we’re curious about a Dodgers/over parlay). This is the best we can do.
Pick: Over 8 (-105). Low confidence.
ALCS
On the futures side, the White Sox are a good play today because 1) they’re one of the positive-value options available, and there aren’t a ton of those; and 2) we don’t know how the market would react to each potential winner tonight, but there’s a chance we’ll lose some value when it does react.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +330. Low confidence.
