Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,589 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures and a pick for tonight’s MACtion. Our college football futures are being pushed back this week, to tomorrow. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 74.51 units, or 9.9%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 51–44–2. We’re up 3.28 units and up 3%.
World Series (Hedge)
Today’s hedge is 28 units, and we wish we didn’t have to make it, but if the Rangers win tonight we’re not going to get a better price than this for days, if ever. This locks our 2023 MLB futures portfolio into profitability overall. Ideally, the Diamondbacks keep this interesting, but in case they don’t, our floor is above the break-even line.
Pick: Texas to win –270. Medium confidence. x14
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan
NIU has had two conference games well above this number and two well below it. CMU has had two well below it and two right around it. With the weather terrible, and without a whole lot we like on the spread of either game, we’ll take the defenses tonight in this one (or the lack of offense).
Pick: Under 48.5 (–110). Low confidence.
