Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,509 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.2% across 1,885 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, tonight’s college football, and this week’s college football futures. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 139.26 units, or 18.6%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 44–39–2. We’re up 1.74 units and up 2%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. As with the MLB futures, this is circular, but if we use Movelor probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 300 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 25.08 units, or 8.4%.
NLCS (Hedge)
We had 66.9 units of NLCS upside on the Diamondbacks entering today, so we’re spending 66 units on this hedge. We like the Diamondbacks’ value, and we don’t like the Phillies’ NLCS value, but we have so much Diamondbacks upside in the World Series that we think this is worth the cost. Here’s where it leaves our World Series scenarios:
| Winner | Loser | Net |
| Arizona | Texas | 535.39 |
| Philadelphia | Texas | 280.58 |
| Texas | Philadelphia | -125.02 |
| Texas | Arizona | -160.61 |
Pick: Philadelphia to win –163. Medium confidence. (Pfaadt and Suárez must start.) x33
Liberty @ Western Kentucky
We really don’t know what to make of this one, but Movelor is more convinced of this than it is of anything having to do with NMSU and Louisiana Tech. We will say: Liberty’s looked underwhelming with comparable frequency to WKU, and we think too much is being made of Liberty getting away with it more often.
Pick: Western Kentucky +4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
College Football Playoff
I’m not sure the correct takeaway is happening from Saturday. My impression is that one of the best teams in the country stuffed another of the best teams in the country and made it work, shorthanded, against their defense. My other impression is that a team we expected to lose lost. Ohio State won the home game of the round robin, the one they likely have to win, and looked like the best team in the country on paper while they did it. Penn State lost the road game, the one they didn’t need. The eROI on these, per Movelor, is well over 100%. Movelor’s likely high on them relative to the truth, but there’s still value here.
Pick: Ohio State to win CFP National Championship +600. Low confidence.
Pick: Penn State to make College Football Playoff +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Penn State to make College Football Playoff +1400. Low confidence.
Big 12
Kansas State rocked TCU and is now looking at a trip to Texas in two weeks in which Quinn Ewers might not play, and might be banged up if he does. The value is too high to pass up, even with everything we have on K-State from earlier this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has put themselves in a good position, and the Pokes don’t have to play Texas this regular season. Add them to our large list of Big 12 spoilers.
Pick: Kansas State to win +900. Low confidence.
Pick: Oklahoma State to win +2000. Low confidence.
ACC
This is a small dent, but it’s a dent, and with positive eROI we’ll take it. We have big upside on all of Louisville, UNC, and Duke, but we’re guessing FSU will be bigger than a –220 favorite when the game actually comes.
Pick: Florida State –220. Low confidence. x2
Pac-12
This is one of those mis-pricings we just have to take. This conference could get messy, fast, and UCLA finishes against Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, and Cal. That’s a pretty good draw, compared to what it could be.
Pick: UCLA to win +6600. Low confidence.
Sun Belt
With value materializing on South Alabama, we’ve now got the Sun Belt just about cornered, provided the league doesn’t change course and let JMU into the conference championship, in which case we still might be ok but we’d need a big, big hedge. We’re adding more on Troy, because there’s upside there and we have the flexibility to afford it.
Pick: Troy to win +300. Low confidence. x2
Pick: South Alabama to win +350. Low confidence. x3
MAC
Our MAC section of the portfolio’s a bit of a mess, but we do think Ohio’s overvalued head-to-head this weekend against Miami, and we’ll take the value that presents us. It’s more likely to go poorly than well, but the upside is worth it.
Pick: Miami (OH) to win +600. Low confidence.
