Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,914 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1% across 2,397 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets: MLB futures. Only MLB futures today. Here’s the context:
MLB futures: In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, then pivot to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs. We’re currently big fans of the Tigers, Padres, Braves, and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers, Orioles, or Phillies to win it all.
Wild Card Series: Baltimore vs. Kansas City
We already have a little upside on the Royals (and a lot of downside on the Orioles), but we want to generate some opportunities to get units back before the end of the ALCS and NLCS, and this is one of the better ones. It’s easy to overestimate the Orioles’ late-season fade. I don’t think we need to put a ton of stock in that. It’s easy to underestimate the more consequential Orioles lack of quality starting pitching. They might get away with it, but they’re not going to feel good sending anyone out there not named Corbin Burnes, and Cole Ragans is a tough opponent for Burnes in Game 1.
Pick: Kansas City to win +151. Medium confidence.
Wild Card Series: San Diego vs. Atlanta
In something of a partner to that last one (more likely than not, one of the two will win, even though both are underdogs), we’re taking the team that looks the deadest. Why? Well, they’ve got Max Fried and Reynaldo López lined up to go tomorrow and Thursday if they choose to go that direction. They’ll have a chance, and the possibility of an upset tonight is probably underrated. This is still baseball, and while Atlanta played a lot of games the last four days, but they did get back-to-back days off before them.
We still prefer the Padres in this series, because of our World Series Padres upside. This would be a little consolation prize.
Pick: Atlanta to win +167. Medium confidence.
NLCS
With our bigger play today, we’re putting six units on the Phillies. We haven’t seen many opportunities on this team, and since they’re positive EV right now, we’ll happily soften the potential blow.
(There’s value on Philly in the World Series market as well, but the eROI is higher here, as is the probability.)
Pick: Philadelphia to win +235. Medium confidence. x3
