Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,641 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t amazing, but it’s positive, and we are nearly locked into a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Atlanta @ Los Angeles
Will the Dodgers bounce back and win this? Probably. But it’s less probable than the line is making it appear, and while Walker Buehler should be expected to pitch admirably, but admirably still would most likely involve giving up a pair of runs, and he might allow more. Importantly for the over, Justin Turner is in the lineup.
Pick: Atlanta to win +160. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Houston @ Boston
I do think Zack Greinke’s a bit undervalued here. I also am not sure we, as a market, have fully reckoned with how bad these bullpens are or how it might be chilly but it’s not cold at Fenway. Wind’s blowing out to right again.
Pick: Houston to win +110. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 10 (-115). Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
We’re sticking with this double-unit exact matchup form of hedging for at least another day, though we could up the unit, place a few also on the Dodgers to win the World Series, and fully lock our futures portfolio into a profit. We’re holding off as long as we are because we can still almost assuredly get to a locked-in profit eventually, even if both the Astros and Dodgers win tonight, and we want to both keep a little flexibility and minimize the price of hedging if we can.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +641. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +641. Low confidence.
