Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,610 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% across 948 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. Still not sure when we’ll get back to our other futures portfolios, but hopefully tomorrow (“hopefully tomorrow” is an unfortunate slogan we’ve found ourselves adopting lately).
For unit context: We started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 12.74 units of profit, and we have 536.74 units in the bankroll, with 540 units pending.
World Series
We’re doing the same thing as yesterday, with last night’s rainout changing our plans for hedging today. It’s good value, the Padres are slightly more likely to win today than to lose so the odds should be shorter tomorrow. Big day tomorrow for us, we’d guess.
Pick: San Diego to win +325. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win +325. Medium confidence.
