Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,335 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,739 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures, and we’ve got today’s college football—both tonight’s and this week’s futures. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 114.22 units, or 15.2%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 34–28–1. We’re up 3.67 units and up 6%. We’re coming off a good three weeks.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. As with the MLB futures, this is circular, but if we use Movelor probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 300 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 34.84 units, or 11.6%.
Division Series: Los Angeles vs. Arizona (Hedge)
It’s hedging time. Our big liability is a Dodgers/Rangers World Series matchup, and the Dodgers are in a hole. We’re going to take this, even at slightly bad value, to shore up that edge. It isn’t enough to lock us into profitability just yet, but it puts us in a position where even our nightmare scenario with these Division Series—the scenario in which the Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros all win—leaves us aimed at something roughly around an even result. We have plenty of time to raise that hypothetical average further. Hopefully the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Twins don’t make it come to that.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +460. Medium confidence. x4
ALCS
Helping this whole process is that there’s solid value available on the Astros right now. We’ll take some of it here, hoping that the markets are right and the Twins are in better shape than we think. We’d still much prefer the Twins, just as we’d prefer the Diamondbacks above.
Pick: Houston to win +225. Medium confidence.
Liberty @ Jacksonville State
Liberty goes to Jacksonville State tonight, and it’s unclear if Jacksonville State isn’t the best team in Conference USA. They’ve messed around a lot, but their results have been roughly as good as Liberty’s and WKU’s. That messing around is an interesting point, because it seems to be the excuse made for Liberty after Thursday night’s underwhelming performance against Sam Houston: “Yeah, but they still won.” We don’t know if the Gamecocks get the upset tonight, but we like this line, especially at an even seven points.
Pick: Jacksonville State +7 (–120). Low confidence.
Pac-12
We have some liability on Oregon, but our model shows value on them here, so we’re taking the Ducks and putting three units on them, something which makes both them and Washington profitable scenarios within the Pac-12 section of our portfolio, along with Utah and Oregon State.
Pick: Oregon to win +200. Low confidence. x3
Big 12
Both Oklahoma and Texas are liabilities for us in the Big 12, but now that we know Oklahoma has the leg up, we can start coalescing around the Sooners, especially with them available at positive value. Also available at positive value is West Virginia, whose 2–0 start gives them a big leg up, especially considering they don’t have to play Texas. They are a huge longshot, but the value is great.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +100. Low confidence. x2
Pick: West Virginia to win +2500. Low confidence.
ACC
More great value here. If either of Louisville and UNC makes the ACC Championship, we will have a ton of leverage.
Pick: North Carolina to win +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Louisville to win +550. Low confidence.
Mountain West
And, lastly, our Mountain West pair. Fresno State hurt the value of our previous plays on them, but they gave us a great opportunity here. It’s still likely that one of these two is the best team in the conference, and if favorites win all games from here, this will be the conference championship game.
Pick: Air Force to win +125. Low confidence.
Pick: Fresno State to win +600. Low confidence.
