Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,910 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got college basketball, we’ve got MACtion. We’re pushing college football futures back again this week, but we’re planning to only push them to tomorrow. Here’s the context on each of the active markets.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 1–1. We’re down 0.09 units and down 5%. It’s early.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 58–55–2. We’re down 1.82 units and down 2%. It’s going a little badly, but profitability is very much in reach.
Stony Brook @ St. John’s
It’s Rick Pitino’s St. John’s debut, and we aren’t sure what to make of it but kenpom favors the under.
What we’re thinking here is that with the only known injury to RJ Luis, with EvanMiya grading Luis as fairly balanced between offensive and defensive value, and with kenpom projecting St. John’s to run a tempo in line with those run by Pitino’s last two Iona teams, the kenpom number is probably pretty good. We don’t know if this will be a blowout, but even if it is: Blowouts can take on different forms.
Pick: Under 150 (–110). Low confidence.
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
We’re not sure whether we should be trusting Movelor against the spread right now or not. We haven’t been blindly following it, but we do use it to identify opportunities. We look for games where the Movelor spread is more than a field goal away from the market spread, and we go from there. Last weekend was tough, but we had a lot of close losses and a few blowout wins, which makes us hesitant to alter our course too much.
So, for tonight, we trust it, banking on Western Michigan being a little less noticeable this season than Central Michigan despite playing better both overall and of late.
Pick: Western Michigan –3 (–110). Low confidence.
