Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 612 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Four picks today, all in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Kansas vs. Duke
Our college basketball model is not quite finished (I’ll tentatively say to expect it later tonight, but it’s possible it won’t get there until later this week). Because of that, we don’t have numbers to attach yet to the respective probabilities of Kansas and Duke ending up as top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
With that being said, the aggregate ratings our model uses place Duke as the second-best team in the country and Kansas the tenth-best, meaning this is about as likely as any November game can be to be an Elite Eight, Final Four, or National Championship preview.
It’s hard to know exactly why those ratings are higher on Duke and lower on Kansas than the press (the AP Poll has the Blue Devils ranked fourth, the Jayhawks third). A good narrative to explain it would be that they’re underestimating the impact Udoka Azubuike will have after missing most of Kansas’ 2018-19 season with a hand injury. These ratings, though, have been doing their thing and doing it well for a long time. They know all about Azubuike’s 70.5% shooting from the floor in his nine healthy games last season. More likely is that the press, and its partner, the public, are underestimating a Duke team that, while it lacks the eighteen-year-old star power Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett provided, enters the year with another healthy crop of likely first round picks.
Pick: Duke to win (+120). Low confidence.
Bradley @ St. Joseph’s
Billy Lange makes his coaching debut for St. Joseph’s tonight after the Hawks athletic department did away with longtime head man Phil Martelli. The Hawks achieved national prominence early in Martelli’s tenure, making the Sweet 16 in his second season on the job before reaching the Elite Eight in his ninth year, a season in which St. Joe’s lost only twice. After failing to again reach the Sweet 16 in the years that followed, St. Joe’s let Martelli go this past March at the tail end of a 14-19 year in which his team finished the regular season tied for tenth in the 14-team Atlantic 10.
Now, it’s up to Lange to get the program kicking again. Lange comes to St. Joe’s from the 76ers, but he does have prior head coaching experience, having led Navy for seven years a decade ago. Martelli didn’t leave the fullest cupboard: KenPom projects the Hawks to finish tied for eleventh in the A-10.
The visitors, Bradley, are projected by KenPom to finish third in the Missouri Valley just one year after capturing the conference’s title and putting a memorable scare into Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament’s first round. But while Bradley may be picked to finish higher in their league than St. Joe’s, St. Joe’s is playing in a conference that has five teams rated better by KenPom than the Missouri Valley’s favorite. It’s an apples to oranges comparison, and while Bradley’s certainly the better team, the numbers indicate they aren’t more than four points better than St. Joe’s in Philadelphia.
Pick: St. Joseph’s +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Arkansas-Little Rock @ Missouri State
It’s now been four years since Arkansas-Little Rock won thirty games, their final victory coming in two overtimes over Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In the three seasons that have followed, the Trojans have managed a winning record zero times.
Chris Beard was the coach of that team, using it as the launching pad for what’s beginning to look like a legendary run at Texas Tech. His successor, Wes Flanigan, only lasted two seasons before UALR dumped him. Now, former Raptors head coach Darrell Walker is looking to build upon last year’s ten-win performance.
Things don’t look great for the Trojans, especially after losing nearly half their shot volume from last year between Rayjon Tucker, who left for the professional ranks, and Deondre Burns, who graduate transferred over to Oral Roberts. Still, KenPom is optimistic, projecting them for 16 regular-season wins. If they pull it off, it’ll be the best season since Beard left. Playing Missouri State close tonight would be a good sign.
Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock +13 (-110). Low confidence.
UC-Irvine @ San Diego
UC-Irvine is coming off an historic year in which they, for the first time, won an NCAA Tournament game. But while the Anteaters are again the Big West favorite, expectations of another exciting March are unfounded. Of the six players who played 49% or more of the team’s minutes last year, half are gone, most notably the sharp-shooting Max Hazzard, who will be spending his final year of eligibility at Arizona.
UC-Irvine’s opponent tonight, San Diego, is expected to take a similar step back after finishing last year ranked in KenPom’s top 100. Over 60% of the Toreros’ minutes graduated.
One could argue that the shortness of the trip from Irvine to San Diego will negate some of USD’s home court advantage. It’s possible that’s even true. Still, this game is a tossup on paper when assuming an average home court effect. Even at a neutral site, the numbers would say to take San Diego against this line.
Pick: San Diego +5 (-110). Low confidence.
