Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 685 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Murray State vs. Weber State
This game is the second of four that will be played today in the Gulf Coast Showcase. It and the one before it (Drake vs. Northeastern) each have seen their totals bet downwards by the market to well below their initial projection.
It’s possible this is just because, well, they’re morning games. It’s possible it’s because none of yesterday’s four games saw more than 139 points scored, leading bettors to believe there’s a court effect holding totals down.
It’s possible there is a court effect. It’s possible the early tipoff could lead to sloppier play. Overall, though, those are rather flimsy rationales, and the live total for Drake and Northeastern is back closer to the projection than the initial line as I type this.
Pick: Over 131 (-110). Low confidence.
Dayton vs. Virginia Tech
On the first day of this year’s Maui Invitational, Dayton housed Georgia. Their fans packed the stands. Transfer big man Jordy Tshimanga made his debut. Obi Toppin was unstoppable.
Later in the day, though, Virginia Tech took down Michigan State. Projection systems narrowly have the Hokies as the better team. Tshimanga only played eight minutes, and isn’t expected to be one of Dayton’s best players. It’s still a neutral court, even if Dayton has something of a crowd advantage. In a bizarre situation, the team that knocked off a top-five opponent is getting less love from bettors than the one that soundly beat an NIT bubble team. No guarantees, but take advantage of that.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Idaho
There’s no word yet on whether Rocky Kreuser will return tonight after missing NDSU’s last game, three days ago. Kreuser’s an efficient rebounder and a strong three-point shooter, and without him, the Bison struggled, dropping from 166th to 187th between the morning of that game and today.
If Kreuser plays, of course, an Idaho pick won’t be as advantageous. Still, ratings have this line significantly undervaluing the Vandals, and those ratings take into account the six games Kreuser’s played as well as the one he didn’t. Even with their big man, the Bison look slightly overvalued here.
Pick: Idaho +8 (-110). Low confidence.
