Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,839 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
A pair of college football futures below, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus in that market. First, though, some basketball:
Houston vs. Wisconsin
How good will the Badgers be this year? It’s hard to say. This is going to be a slow game, though, and slow games dial up the effect of randomness through their smaller possession count. This isn’t the basis for the pick, but if you consider how high KenPom’s been on Houston over the last few years and then consider the KenPom numbers heavily encourage taking Wisconsin today, it feels like a play that should be made, long though the odds may be.
Pick: Wisconsin to win +255. Low confidence.
Rice vs. Oakland
Maybe I’ll do my research in a few years and find that the effect of rest on college basketball is undervalued or properly valued by the market. Over the last few years, though, at least in the nonconference portions of the season (including conference tournaments), we have a pretty good track record with these picks. And a lot of our picks boil down to picking the team that’s viewed as being too tired to win. Rice played three overtimes yesterday. It’s also a bunch of college dudes in great shape. Don’t read too much into it.
Pick: Rice to win +125. Low confidence.
College Football Playoff
I’m not convinced Alabama won’t get in at 11-2, either by circumstance eliminating other options or the committee simply viewing them as the better team than, say, an 11-1 Notre Dame. With that wind in their sails, and the very real possibility they beat Georgia and make 11-2 not a question, these are decent odds. We’re still heavily in on Georgia, but we’ll start adding a little on the Tide.
Pick: Georgia to win -120. Medium confidence.
Pick: Alabama to win +400. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to win +400. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to win +400. Low confidence.
