Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,957 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got MACtion (for the actual last time—we missed that this was still on the schedule), and we’ve got college basketball. Our college football futures will again be published late this week. We’re looking at tomorrow for both them and the NFL ones, but no promises.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 9–8. We’re up 0.12 units and we’re up 1%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 67–68–3. We’re down 6.64 units and down 5%.
Toledo vs. New Mexico
New Mexico’s had a bad start, Toledo’s had a good one. This is mostly a bet on the market expecting those trends to continue rather than each to find their level, but there’s some body clock thinking thrown in too. This is tipping off late at night, Toledo Time.
Pick: New Mexico –2 (–110). Low confidence.
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
Bowling Green’s been a points machine this season (by MAC standards) on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan got shut out last week. We’re guessing the market’s overvaluing the latter. The weather shouldn’t be too bad tonight in Kalamazoo.
Pick: Over 51.5 (–110). Low confidence.
