Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,796 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we’ll have to wait until Election Day or later.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
A return to World Series futures, and here’s where our MLB Futures portfolio stands: We started the season with 1,040 units available. We’ve so far profited 12.84 units. We have 706.84 units in our bankroll. Before the following picks are placed, we’re in a scenario where we’ll profit by an additional 291.30 units should the Phillies win it all, and lose an additional 33.38 units should the Astros win it all.
World Series (Hedge)
We’re currently 217.59 units away from being back to even all-time on all our published bets, meaning we have 73.71 units to work with from our Phillies upside. With a minimum of three more days of hedging, we’ll put roughly a third of those on the Astros today, bringing our upside on the Phils down to 267.3 units while decreasing our downside on the Astros to 19.42 units. Ideally, the Phillies take a 2-1 lead tonight and we get to hedge the Astros as an underdog, but even if they don’t, we should be able to hedge enough tomorrow to lock in season-long profitability, which is a good minimum threshold to reach.
24 units.
Pick: Houston to win -172. Medium confidence. x12
