Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,815 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Howard @ Villanova
Villanova plays pretty slowly, Howard’s played well in a small sample so far. Howard might gun a lot of threes, but that could go either way. Thirty points is just a lot, even with a split as wide in quality as this one.
Pick: Howard +29.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Colgate @ Cornell
Colgate nearly took down NC State on the road on Saturday, which was…not that surprising. They’re the better team, definitely, but this seems like an overreaction to a slightly good performance.
Pick: Cornell +11.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
New Orleans @ Northwestern
Northwestern is 1) better than we’re used to them being and 2) playing a faster offense than we saw in Chris Collins’s earlier years. That’s a good combination for them as a heavy favorite.
Pick: Northwestern -20.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
