Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,358 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Trying to stay hot on college basketball. Only need to win 108 of these in a row to be back even all-time. Any day now.
Eastern Michigan @ Bradley
Eastern Michigan played Michigan plenty tight, Bradley looked terrible against Utah State, the early reaction pulling this line inwards from where it opened is reasonable enough. The problem is that Emoni Bates is still the guy Memphis couldn’t figure out how to use, and that for as tight as EMU played Michigan, they gave up 1.10 points per possession in a game in which their opponents shot 23.8% from deep and 62.5% from the line. If Michigan shot at last year’s clips from both those spots, they’d have scored eleven more points, and Bates putting up thirty would sound a lot different. Similarly, Bradley’s not going to shoot 34% inside the arc all year, right? That would be surprising.
Pick: Bradley -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Alabama @ South Alabama
I get the EMU line, but I don’t get this one. Did Nate Oats get arrested this morning and did nobody tell me? This is wacky, and that does sometimes mean I’m missing something, but college basketball is big enough that oftentimes, wacky is what it seems.
Pick: Alabama -11 (-110). Low confidence.
