Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 217 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Five picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Seattle @ New York (AL)
The Mariners have, by wRC+ and Offensive Runs above Average, had the second-best offense in baseball this season. They’ve scored the most runs in baseball (207), and they’ve hit the most home runs (70).
Yet they are only one game above .500.
The problem is only partially their pitching.
While their pitching staff has contributed only the 20th-most fWAR (2.0) of any team so far this season, the real problem seems to be the defense, which by FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs above Average measure has been nearly twice as bad (34.3 runs below average) as the next-worst in the league (the White Sox, at 17.9 below average).
Who’s responsible for this?
Domingo Santana is the leading culprit, about ten runs worse than the average left fielder, but Mallex Smith (seven runs worse than the average center fielder) deserves blame as well. Together, the two are worth about half Seattle’s discrepancy from the defensive average, and independently, they’ve been the worst two fielders in baseball, by FanGraphs’ overall evaluation.
Advanced defensive statistics aren’t as reliable as those for the offensive part of the game, or those for pitching. They’re in a much rougher stage of development, and the best publicly available sources for baseball statistics vary on how they present them. Baseball Reference has measured Mallex Smith to be an above-average outfielder—a big difference from Fangraphs’ evaluation (though it, too, has Domingo Santana as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball so far in terms of aggregate performance, and possibly the worst defender overall—I didn’t check too thoroughly).
So, take it with a grain of salt, and check multiple sources. But it seems the Mariners have at least one glaring defensive hole.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -153. Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Detroit
The American League is so stratified that a below-average team needs quite the above-average record to make much of a dent in the playoff picture. Still, it’s worth appreciating that behind the work of guys like Ronny Rodriguez and Daniel Stumpf, the Tigers are one game below .500 (yes, there are more significant contributors, but these are the lesser-known ones with fun names to write).
Ronny Rodriguez (of whom I had never heard prior to two minutes ago), a minor league free agent signing by the Tigers prior to the 2018 season, has flipped from a 58 to a 181 in the wRC+ department from last year to this year, and while the sample size this year is miniscule, he does have three home runs in 50 plate appearances, which is a lot.
There’s no real reason to believe Rodriguez will continue to hit this well, but given where the Tigers are at as a franchise, and given the teams against which they’ll be playing a lot of their games, it’s fun to have a guy like Ronny Rodriguez doing surprising things.
Pick: Detroit to win +130. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Toronto
Aaron Sanchez evidently has quite the history of finger injuries. Blisters, a contusion from getting his finger stuck in a suitcase, and more blisters have kept him sidelined for a good chunk of the past two seasons.
So far this year, though, he’s healthy, and his 3.09 ERA is exciting for Blue Jays fans.
Unfortunately, his 4.74 FIP is not exciting, and he’s walking almost as many guys as he strikes out, which is downright concerning.
Still, the fingers seem to be healthy for now.
Pick: Toronto to win +140. Low confidence.
Washington @ Milwaukee
The Nationals’ war against the injured list continues to be a losing one, as the IL claimed Matt Adams after Saturday’s game. Adams had been filling in for injured Ryan Zimmerman, but Howie Kendrick, more accustomed to middle infield and outfield work these last few years, and Jake Noll, an unheralded rookie, have made starts there the last two days.
The Nationals are in big trouble in the NL East, sitting six games under .500, and while the Mets seem to be fading already, the Phillies are not, and the Braves remain formidably full of young talent.
Getting injured players back is a priority, but the Nationals could stand to turn things around sooner rather than later, and that entails winning with what’s effectively their B-Team.
Pick: Washington to win -105. Low confidence.
Miami @ Chicago (NL)
Jon Lester came off the injured list last week, and his seven-inning, one-hit outing was his best by Fangraphs’ version of game score since a complete game four-hitter against the Giants in May of 2017.
Lester, as he did last year, is leaving a prodigious number of runners on the basepaths, which indicates his 1.73 ERA probably won’t hold up as the sample size rises. Still, his 3.37 FIP would be his best since 2015 if maintained through September, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is way up from last year.
Tread cautiously with pitchers his age, but things are looking alright for this particular 35-year-old.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -155. Low confidence.
