Editor’s Note: Joe would say this isn’t good, but over a sample size of 254 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 0% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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Six picks for tonight’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN are all great sources of data.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
San Diego @ New York (AL)
If Masahiro Tanaka keeps performing as he has so far, 2019 might go down as his best year yet in the MLB.
The 30-year-old import with that dazzling splitter has an ERA under 3.00 through about a third of his starts, and his FIP of 3.63 is less concerning when considering his career FIP is 0.25 above his career ERA (he gets wrecked on home runs, but his BABIP tends to be low).
Pick: San Diego +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Boston
Zach Plesac makes his major league debut tonight for a Cleveland team in need of something positive.
Plesac, an Indiana native, has succeeded everywhere he’s gone, despite never being a well-hyped prospect (he was a 12th-round pick—very good, but far from can’t miss). He was a Freshman All-American at Ball State. His ERA was around 2.50 over his first year of professional ball. His FIP in AA this year is 1.84 over six starts, and in AAA it’s 3.10 over three starts. Combined across the two levels, he’s struck out 56 while only walking seven, and his shortest start lasted five innings.
Plesac might not be the answer Cleveland’s looking for, but it certainly makes sense that they’re giving him a shot.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito was having a good year.
Then Thursday happened.
Giolito, facing the MLB’s best offense by wRC+ in a hitter’s park, threw a four-hit, one-walk shutout, striking out nine.
It was one of the best starts by any pitcher this year, making it fair to now say Giolito is having a great year.
He may get trouble tonight from the weather (combined with the culmination of yesterday’s suspended game), but against a lineup like that of the Royals, he’s exciting to watch.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (-135). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Houston
One major narrative coming out of the Cubs’ 2018 campaign was that Albert Almora, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber needed to produce more offensively.
Happ’s in AAA, but the other two are showing promising signs.
Both are still below-average on the season, by wRC+, but over the last 3+ weeks (beginning May 6th), Almora’s slugged .575 with six home runs while Schwarber’s put up a .363 OBP despite an unsustainably unlucky .244 BABIP.
We’ll see where things go, but after brutal starts in a bad year for brutal starts, there’s hope for both.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +120. Low confidence.
Texas @ Seattle
Can the Rangers stick around and make things interesting? After briefly breaking .500, the Metroplex’s hometown team has dropped three straight, yet they still sit only two and a half games back in the AL Wild Card race. FanGraphs has the utmost confidence in them to not make the playoffs, putting their chances at only 0.8%, but developments like Joey Gallo’s 2.7 WAR to date at the age of 25 are exciting for a franchise in a rough spot.
Pick: Texas to win +138. Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Los Angeles (NL)
Dodgers pitchers are sixth in the league in WAR. Dodgers hitters are first in the league in WAR. The Dodgers don’t have the best record in baseball, but with a win tonight and a Twins loss, they would have it.
Once again, the Los Angeles Dodgers are very, very good.
Pick: Over 8 -110. Medium confidence.
