Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,428 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Milwaukee @ Kansas City
The market seems to be overvaluing the possibility of a Christian Yelich return, undervaluing how well Kris Bubic has pitched so far this year, and maybe undervaluing the consequence of the possibility of rain here? I could be off on this, but I feel like rain more significantly hurts the team with the better starting pitcher. The Brewers do have that great bullpen, but the possibility of Brandon Woodruff being chased by a storm pulls this towards the median in my view, and it’d have to pull it well away from the median to make this pick bad value.
Pick: Kansas City to win +155. Low confidence.
Colorado @ San Diego
The reason this is low confidence is that it’s a low-value play. It’s still positive-value—the Padres are more than the 70% likely to win necessary to justify this pick—but it’s not an awesome play in terms of your expected return.
That said, keep an eye on Blake Snell going forward. He hasn’t made it through six innings yet this year, his FIP’s identical to last year’s at 4.35, and his xERA’s a career-high 4.69. Snell’s probably fine. It’s probably a small sample thing (we’re picking his team to win, after all). But those struggles, if they should be called that, might be contributing to the creation of what value there is here.
Pick: San Diego to win -230. Low confidence.
