Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 233 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Before we begin, one quick note: I took down yesterday’s MLB futures picks and will be replacing them come Monday (or sometime thereabouts). I’m doing this because I realized the source I was using for odds was not current, so I’d gotten way better odds for the picks than the market would allow (though MLB futures odds really are fairly diverse, and looking for arbitrage isn’t a bad idea). I’ll address this again when I post the new round of futures picks, but I wanted to mention it here for anyone reading these daily.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
Joe Musgrove was having a great beginning of the season.
Then last week happened.
In a pair of starts against the A’s and Cardinals, Musgrove allowed 13 runs (eleven earned) in a combined five and two thirds innings. Perhaps most troubling, he walked five while only getting nine outs against the Cardinals on Friday.
Still, his FIP for the season is only 2.96, and while his ability to keep fly balls in the field of play is likely unsustainable, his most accurate projection lies somewhere between what he showed across March and April and how he performed last week.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +140. Low confidence.
Toronto @ San Francisco
Nick Vincent will be the opener tonight for the Giants, and to be honest, I’m a bit ashamed his name didn’t ring any bells when I saw him listed.
Vincent’s thrown 356 innings across variously sized portions of eight seasons, posting a 3.11 ERA in those innings. He probably isn’t destined for the Hall of Fame, and given his penchant for pitching on non-competitive teams (San Diego and Seattle were his stops prior to San Francisco), it’s fair to not know his name, but Vincent has quietly put together an impressive career.
Pick: San Francisco to win -120. Low confidence.
