Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,094 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the end of the week, with conference tournament futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another round of conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
UNC-Wilmington vs. Delaware
UNC-Wilmington plays slow, and Delaware’s defense has had a great week, but it’s easy to make too much of the early rounds of a tournament as predictors of the later rounds. That’s probably what’s happening here.
Pick: Over 133 (-110). Medium confidence.
Northern Kentucky vs. Wright State
This isn’t because of Wright State’s bizarre late-game fouling last night, but that doesn’t hurt when it comes to selling this pick. The Raiders play faster tempo than this seems to be indicating, with the evident assumption that NKU will control the pace. That assumption is dubious.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Medium confidence.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s
We’re already heavily in on Saint Mary’s thanks to futures (we looked at hedging, but the moneyline’s too wide for it to make any sense). We’ll add one on the spread here. The basis for this line could either be that the market expects Gonzaga to be poorly valued by algorithms, sitting on the fringes like they do, or to be fired up for a rematch of a recent loss. The latter is a bit of a fallacy.
Pick: Saint Mary’s +12.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Now, the futures (small chance we’ll add a Conference USA pick or two if those odds come back onto the board—if we do that, we’ll send out a tweet):
ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Duke’s overvalued here, as is often the case when there’s a clear, substantial favorite. UNC’s overvalued, probably in an overreaction to this weekend’s performance. This creates value elsewhere, and specifically on these six, with Clemson especially exciting on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke and opening against a bad NC State team.
Pick: Notre Dame to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Virginia Tech to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Wake Forest to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Miami to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Pick: Syracuse to win +6000. Low confidence.
Pick: Clemson to win +10000. Low confidence.
MAAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
It’s a similar story here. Iona’s the favorite, but isn’t favored over the field, and there’s therefore some room elsewhere. The books we look at were wide apart on some of these, indicating either uncertainty or carelessness. Either presents opportunity.
Pick: Niagara to win +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Marist to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Siena to win +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: Rider to win +6600. Low confidence.
WAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Either of these teams will have to win five games in five days to win this tournament while the top two seeds, New Mexico State and Seattle, only have to win two games in two days. For Cal Baptist, though, lining up on the optimum side of the bracket, there’s a path at 100-to-1, and Utah Valley’s shown they can play with anyone in the league when they’re playing well. Five potential games gives them a lot of chances to figure it out.
Pick: Utah Valley to win +1500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Cal Baptist to win +10000. Low confidence.
