Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,721 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
For context on the college basketball futures: We started with 100 units in our portfolio, intending to keep 50 set aside in case we needed to hedge. We’re down 1.5 units so far, and we had 5 units pending before today’s futures were placed, across a total of 3 plays (Oral Roberts, Saint Mary’s, Northern Arizona). So, we’re betting from a 93.5-unit bankroll on the futures front.
Southland Conference Tournament
We take our odds from two books, and even across just those two, there’s something like arbitrage on this tournament. AMCC is roughly 50% likely to win this tournament. Northwestern State is only about 40% likely, but together, that’s a 90% chance one of them will win. If both win tonight, we’re profiting, and if one loses, we’re in a spot where we can hedge out of most of our liability tomorrow night. We’ll put ten units on each, with a 90% chance of cashing within 36 hours.
Pick: Texas A&M Corpus Christi to win +115. Medium confidence. x5
Pick: Northwestern State to win +140. Medium confidence. x5
Big Sky Conference Tournament
This is much smaller, but we like the value on Weber. More likely than not, they lose, but if they take down Montana State tonight, they’re going to be close to a tossup to win tomorrow against Montana, and that’s if Northern Arizona doesn’t keep the magic going.
Pick: Weber State to win +700. Low confidence.
Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame
The last time these two played, they put together 180 points, and I’m not sure that was an anomaly. It’s not that they’re even great shooters. They’re just both so terrible defensively.
Pick: Over 145 (-110). Low confidence.
Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga
A trend? Or making too much of a small sample?
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have played this game three times in the last four years, including in 2020, right before the Covid shutdown. Over that span, games have been slow, even by Saint Mary’s standard. The WCC Championship has averaged, in those three contests, a possession total one possession lower than Saint Mary’s KenPom Adjusted Tempo and about 8.5 possessions lower than Gonzaga’s. That points towards 61 possessions tonight, or a total around 136. On this board, we’ll take that.
Pick: Under 139.5 (-110). Low confidence.
