Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,906 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, both single-day and futures.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 115–79–1 and we’re down 2.17 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day.
Purdue @ Illinois
Illinois is tremendous offensively, and a home game after Purdue’s already partially clinched the Big Ten is a good spot. But I’m not sure how you beat Purdue without playing defense.
Pick: Purdue +2 (–105). Low confidence.
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
We’re betting on Wake Forest having awoken with this one. Also, Georgia Tech doesn’t seem good enough to actually get hot.
Pick: Wake Forest –13.5 (–115). Low confidence.
San Diego State @ UNLV
Finally, we’ll take San Diego State to extend their win streak over UNLV to four years, and to do it with at least a teensy bit of breathing room.
Pick: San Diego State –2 (–115). Low confidence.
ASUN Tournament
We think this Queens line is a mistake, since we’re seeing them elsewhere at 22-to-1 and they’re only a 5.5-point underdog tonight at Stetson. We’ll hop on board, for the value, and add one more unit alongside it on Lipscomb, whom we also took at this price yesterday. Ideally, both win tonight and we’ve got each in a semifinal, with Lipscomb’s at home.
Pick: Lipscomb to win +300. Low confidence.
Pick: Queens to win +5000. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
We like the value on all four of these, and we had nothing down previously on BYU and plenty of space to grow with the other three. We more or less have 14 teams we like now within the NCAA Tournament, though we could stand to better the upside on a few of those.
Pick: Auburn to make Final Four +450. Low confidence.
Pick: Duke to make Final Four +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to make Final Four +650. Low confidence.
Pick: BYU to make Final Four +1600. Low confidence.
