Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,326 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
The best odds available today, at least in college basketball, are for a game that isn’t happening until Saturday. So I guess you could consider these futures, in a way.
Baylor vs. Houston
I have a good amount down on Houston. In these picks, the following plays are live:
Houston to win national championship +1800. Low confidence.
Exact Championship Matchup: Houston vs. USC +2800. Low confidence.
Exact Championship Matchup: Houston vs. UCLA +3500. Low confidence.
It isn’t an egregious amount, but the upside is high, and at least the first of those is going to survive past tonight, meaning hedging opportunities will be available (we also have a live future on Michigan at +1000 to win it all, meaning we’ll have two valuable pieces to work with between tonight and Saturday if we do wish to hedge).
Still, when there’s a line this good, you almost have to take it.
The market’s beef with Houston seems to be partially aesthetic. The Cougars don’t exactly play pretty basketball, unless you consider offensive rebounding to be beauty at its finest. Their defense is rough and tough, like a recoiling spring thrashing around.
To be fair, though, there’s another piece of doubt thrown Houston’s way, and it’s more reasonable: The Cougars have not been tested the way Baylor, or Gonzaga, or Michigan, or even USC or UCLA has been tested. Their best opponent was Texas Tech, and they played the Red Raiders all the way back in November. Since then, NIT Champion Memphis tops the list, unless you’re counting Oregon State as better than Memphis, in which case I would like to organize an exhibition match and offer you even odds.
But teams don’t automatically become better just by playing stronger competition. That’s not what stronger competition means. What stronger competition means is that we have a better idea of how good a team is, and with Houston, that leaves open the possibility that the Cougars might be better than the numbers tell us.
Is this a guarantee that Houston will win? Not at all. They should be the underdog. But they should only be a one-point underdog, if that.
As for the total: I’m guessing this is a basketball-in-a-football-stadium line to an extent, but I think it’s probably reliant upon something independent of location as well. And that is Baylor’s defense.
Baylor’s defense is good, but it isn’t great. The Bears force a ton of turnovers, but their opponents are allowed to shoot fairly well from the floor and they get crushed on the defensive glass. Against the second-most productive offensive rebounding team in the country, which also happens to be decently good at protecting the basketball, that’s a recipe for points.
Specifically, points for Houston.
Pick: Houston +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 135.5 (-110). Low confidence.
