Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,799 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We’ve decided not to hedge against our 65-to-1 future on Utah Valley to win the NIT. The upside is just too high for us. It’d get us back to even all-time, rounding to the nearest full percentage point. There’s value to be captured by hedging, and we don’t love Utah Valley’s chances with Mark Madsen out of town, but we’ve already locked in profiting on college basketball futures this season and we care more about upside than downside right now. If Utah Valley wins, we may hedge against them on Thursday, but for today, we’re letting the future ride.
North Texas vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a tough, accomplished team. North Texas is probably better, though. Even without Abou Ousmane, KenPom has UNT between Texas A&M and Virginia right now. That’s very, very good. This isn’t a criticism of Wisconsin—North Texas is just probably the better team, and the better team wins more often than not.
Pick: North Texas -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UAB vs. Utah Valley
It’s a strange situation for Utah Valley, their head coach at the very least likely to be out of town (Mark Madsen’s wife either recently had a baby or is imminently due, we haven’t heard any news and continue to wish their family the best) and possibly leaving the job altogether for the Cal gig. Usually, we think absences matter less than the market gives them credit for mattering, but Utah Valley lines have been all over the place this tournament, and the spread has only in the last 24 hours started pulling in UAB’s direction. We probably should have jumped on that when lines were released.
Instead, we’ll take the over. We expect both teams to play loose and to have fun, and we think that’ll lead to points tonight. These guys are going to be the most rested they’ve been for a while. That can lead to defensive intensity, but it should also lead to some fluid shooting.
Pick: Over 151 (-110). Low confidence.
